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情景分析作为一项应对发展不确定性的规划方法，1990年代起被系统运用于城市规划领域，随着城市发展所面临的环境愈加复杂，情景分析的作用将进一步凸显。采用CiteSpace分析工具，笔者对Web ofScience和中国知网1991—2020年的文献数据进行计量分析，对国内外情景分析方法在城市规划中应用的进展、热点、趋势和应用领域进行总结。之后，对比国内外主要应用领域的差异，并对情景分析在我国城市规划实践中的应用进行了展望：拓展应用领域和理性规划研究方法，强化方案绩效评价和优化决策过程，综合智能规划技术构建推演分析平台，以及推动新技术在国土空间规划中的集成。
Abstract：As a planning method to cope with development uncertainty,scenario analysis has been systematically applied in the field of urban planning since the 1990s. The current urban development faces more complex environment, and the role of scenario analysis will be further highlighted.This paper summarizes the progress, hot spots, trends and application areas of scenario analysis methods applied in urban planning at home and abroad by using the CiteSpace analysis tool and bibliometrics analysis of literature data from 1991 to 2020 in WoS and CNKI respectively. Then, the differences between the main application areas at home and abroad are compared, and the application of scenario analysis in urban planning practice in China is prospected that expand application fields and rational planning research methods, strengthen planning performance evaluation and decision-making process optimization, integrate intelligent planning technology to build a deduction and analysis platform, and promote the integration of new technologies in spatial planning.
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(1)此处指中介中心度，反映网络中一个节点连接其他关键词节点的中介能力。一般情况下，中心度≥0.1即可将其视为比较重要的节点。
(2)CiteSpace依据网络结构和聚类的清晰度，提供了模块值（Q值）和平均轮廓值（S值）两个指标，它可以作为我们评判图谱绘制效果的依据。一般而言，Q值一般在[0,1)区间内。Q> 0.3意味着划分出来的社团结构是显著的；当S值在0.7时，聚类是高效率令人信服的；若在0.5以上，一般认为聚类是合理的。
基本信息:
DOI：10.19830/j.upi.2021.641
中图分类号:TU984;G353.1
引用信息:
[1]窦寅,张尚武.情景分析在城市规划中的应用——基于1991—2020年文献计量的研究综述与展望[J].国际城市规划,2024,39(02):55-64.DOI:10.19830/j.upi.2021.641.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目（52078352）
2022-04-28
2022-04-28
2022-04-28